A few months back, West Texas Intermediate flirted with the high-$50s, and the commentariat exhaled a collective sigh of relief…

“See?” they said. “The oil market is flush, tariffs or no tariffs.” It felt reassuring, like sticking a piece of tape over a flashing check-engine light. 

Yet that sense of comfort comes from a fantasy: whispers about OPEC “just about” to flood the market and presidential proclamations about everlasting U-S-of-A energy dominance.

 Strip away the talking points and the fundamentals are already tightening… 

Shrinking Rigs, Shrinking Reserves

Efficiency gains let shale drillers do more with fewer rigs—until they can’t… 

An image of a chart of the Baker Hughes rig count falling year over year as of July 11, 2025. Source: Baker Hughes

The Baker Hughes rig count has been sliding for years, and July is expected to bring another leg down. You don’t park iron unless the best rock no longer works at today’s prices. 

An image of a chart showing various breakeven prices across several U.S. oil basins. Source: East Daley Analytics

Right now the only acreage still making money under $60 is the absolute cream of the crop. And drillers are fast chewing through those sweet spots, too. 

That reality is showing up in the books… 

After a decade of bragging about ever-growing reserves, the United States posted a 3.9% year-over-year drop in proved oil and condensate for 2023, even as output rose nearly 8%. 

North Dakota alone lost 12.3% of its proved barrels thanks to fewer rigs turning to the right. 

And, just in case you were confused, flat-lining production and shrinking reserves are nobody’s definition of an oversupplied market.

The Strategic Petroleum Pickle

Remember the 180 million barrels President Biden dumped from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to calm prices and win votes after Russia invaded Ukraine?… 

An image of a chart showing the U.S. SPR levels since 1980. Source: Reuters

The SPR still hasn’t been refilled. That leaves the White House—any White House—with the thinnest emergency cushion in modern memory. 

When the next supply shock hits, there’s no government lifeline to keep gas stations calm… 

OPEC Smoke-Signals and Shale Mythology

Analysts keep parroting anonymous “OPEC sources” who swear July’s ministerial meeting will green-light a production hike. Maybe… 

More likely those leaks are leverage plays—talk the price down without adding a single extra barrel. And even if the cartel does open the taps, history says it’s because demand is roaring back, not because spare capacity is brimming over. 

Meanwhile Wall Street still believes U.S. shale can crank forever…

The truth: drillers are marching from tier-one rock to tier two and three, where costs rise and flow rates fall. 

That’s why even with record-high lateral lengths and digital-twin well planning, total Lower 48 production slipped in April versus March. 

The shale miracle isn’t dead—but it’s a lot older, slower, and more expensive than the spreadsheets suggest.

When the Dam Breaks

Today’s oil strip looks like musical chairs… 

As long as the music plays—cheap crude, easy narratives—money managers stay parked in AI and green-energy darlings. 

But fundamentals always crash the party. 

And the second headline sentiment flips from “glut” to “tight”—maybe a refinery fire, maybe the first Gulf storm of the year—the herd will sprint back into barrels and the $70 ceiling will disappear. 

History punishes those who wait for CNBC to bless the trade…

Think 2007, when oil vaulted from $50 to $147 in under two years. Or 2022, when WTI leapt 60% in six months while analysts were still predicting $40. 

Cheap crude is a mirage, not a new normal. And mirages vanish fast.

Your Next Move

Smart investors aren’t staring at line charts hoping for $45. They’re hunting for operators that can stay profitable in the $60s yet gush cash when crude rips through $90. 

That field narrows every year as legacy shale sweet spots deplete and mega-caps chase global LNG… 

The true growth stories live in the smaller, scrappier corners of the patch—names drilling second-generation horizontals in under-appreciated basins at half the cost of the majors.

No Time Like the Present

If you want to learn where the real upside hides, start with the only growth names left in the oil patch—companies like Prairie Operating Company…

An image of Prairie Operating Company (NASDAQ: PROP) logo and well-site. Source: Prairie Operating Company

This Denver-Julesburg Basin up-and-comer boasts some of the lowest breakeven prices in the industry, setting it up to explode with profit as the era of bargain-basement oil draws to a close. 

Discover why outfits like Prairie Operating Company (NASDAQ: PROP) could become tomorrow’s legends—before the crowd finally wakes up and the easy money is gone.

Disclosure: Neither The Investment Journal nor the author have a financial position in any of the companies mentioned in this article. An affiliate of The Investment Journal has been retained for marketing services by Prairie Operating Company (NASDAQ: PROP) between July and August; however, this is not a sponsored post. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Oh, what a difference a few days can make, eh? We’ve gone from headlines screaming, “U.S. Heading for Recession!!” to ones talking about the greatest stock market rally in decades. And all it took was one announcement that the U.S. and China are getting closer to a trade deal that benefits both nations.

Of course, like clockwork, the naysayers came out in force questioning the validity of a joint statement made by the representatives of both countries. They say it’s just talk. It’s not a deal until it’s signed. The U.S. caved…

But really they just don’t want to admit that Trump was right…

He was right about trade imbalances. And he was right about tariffs. Maybe they’re not the most delicate tool. In fact, they’re more like a baseball bat than a surgeon’s scalpel. But nonetheless, Trump was right…

He knew that, as the world’s biggest consumer, the United States was a market nobody can afford to lose. And he knew that, while it might sting American consumers a little bit to pay more for their imported goods (or just buy American 🤷), it would hurt the other countries a lot more to lose their biggest buyer.

He knew that they’d come to the U.S. looking to make a deal. And that’s exactly what they did…

South Korea, Japan, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, India, Israel, Switzerland, Qatar, Cambodia, France, Italy, and now China, too. They all decided it was better to make a deal than to try to carry out a trade war with America.

Trump even told people to go out and buy stocks. He said the “smart money” was being stupid and that you should always bet on American exceptionalism.

And markets are up over 20% since then.

The bottom line is the mainstream media was wrong and Trump was right, whether they’ll admit it or not. But I’m not here just to rub dirt in the mainstream media’s eyes while it’s down…

Because they’re probably not going to admit it. And that’s doing investors a huge (or should I say “yuge”) disservice. Because while they’re lamenting the fact that Trump was right about tariffs, investors need to start asking what Trump will be right about next…

The mainstream media isn’t going to tell you. That’s for sure. They can’t even admit he’s been right about pretty much everything else. Why would they start now?

But that’s what we’re here for, to set aside any personal feelings we might have and dig into the biggest investment opportunities. And, like Trump who’s busy building relationships all over the newly dubbed Arabian Gulf, we’re not resting for a second.

Because we knew exactly what Trump’s going to be right about next and it’s going to make a trade deal with China look like small potatoes.

That’s because Trump’s next big win has already been set in motion and he’s just cementing it and doing a victory lap through the oil-rich Gulf states…

You see, it’s a pretty commonly known fact that Donald Trump supports the U.S. fossil fuel industry. (Drill, baby, drill!). But it’s not as commonly understood that Trump doesn’t just want American energy independence. He wants American energy dominance.

And, quietly, earlier this year, he established a new national council dedicated to achieving just that:

This council is tasked with streamlining permitting processes, enhancing energy production and distribution across all sectors—including critical minerals—and fostering private sector investment by reducing regulatory barriers and promoting innovation.

And it’s already getting to work developing a comprehensive National Energy Dominance Strategy, coordinating federal and private sector efforts, and consulting with state, local, and tribal officials to expand reliable and affordable energy production nationwide.

Now, of course, the mainstream media is doing everything it can to hide the council’s success…

But savvy investors are already quietly reaping the rewards as certain American companies are thriving under these policies, but they remain completely off the radar of the general public.

One in particular, Prairie Operating Company (NASDAQ: PROP) deserves particular attention. Since Trump instated his new energy policies, it’s grown production by over 1,000% through strategic acquisitions and expanded drilling.

Prairie is focused on the lucrative, but low-cost Denver Julesburg (DJ) Basin in northeastern Colorado. And it’s concentration of assets in oil-friendly, rural Weld County makes it a perfect investment for growth…

With no towns or communities close to its oil-rich assets, the company is able to move quickly to get its wells in the ground and the oil flowing out and down the pipelines to Cushing. And, as an added bonus, that oil gets a premium price at the pump down there because it’s better suited to the Gulf-coast refineries.

So, it’s got a low-cost field, a low-cost operation, direct access to the global hub for oil sales in Cushing, AND it gets a premium on its product because it’s what the refineries need. With breakeven prices potentially dropping below $40 in the near future, this company’s profitable when others aren’t.

Yet, it’s still relatively unknown outside of closely knit investment circles. But more and more investors are catching on. And the administration’s deregulation efforts and strategic appointments are now attracting global investment by the trillions (see Saudi Arabia’s $600 BILLION).

By streamlining regulations and opening new areas for exploration, the U.S. is solidifying its position as a global energy leader. This isn’t just about politics, though. It’s about profits…

Like I said, you shouldn’t expect to hear this story from the mainstream press – they’re too busy pushing their anti-Trump narratives.

That’s why they missed out on the record-setting rally the markets just had. But we’re willing to look past our own beliefs in search of profit opportunities for our investors.

And while the media unfortunately often lies to you, the numbers don’t. Prairie is one of the only places both the Trump administration and investors can look for growth in the American oil field.

Its strong balance sheet, low breakeven price, enviable location, and experienced leadership team make it the best bet for investors looking to capitalize on Trump’s next win while the mainstream media is still lamenting his last.